Mr. Mayor, The Numbers Don’t Add Up

…the city has provided shelter and care for more than 101,200 asylum seekers that have arrived in the five boroughs since April 2022... New York City has already spent over $1.73 billion through the end of July and anticipates spending over $4.7 billion in the current fiscal year. Over three fiscal years, the city has the potential to spend upwards of $12 billion on this crisis...
— Mayor Eric Adams

So, naturally, as advocates for families and residents, we wanted to better understand what is happening at the border, who is seeking asylum, and what has recently changed to drive such large numbers of arrival.

All New York Families Have Questions

What has changed at the border?

Title 42 had previously allowed Customers & Border Patrol to turn away arrivals at the border before they had the chance to claim asylum because of the risk of Covid-19. When that policy was lifted in May, the Biden administration tried something different: if a person arriving has passed through other countries where they have tried to claim asylum; or they haven’t made an appointment at our border, then they are turned back.

Is the new policy working?

Well, not really. While overall encounters seem to be down, more are coming in unauthorized. According to this NBC New report, the issue is the increase in processing time required to screen at the border. So those crossing are, in many cases, released into the US pending a decision regarding even their eligibility to apply (called a ‘credible fear interview’).

The challenge is: if they aren’t eligible to apply for asylum then they are supposed to be deported, but cost aside, in ‘sanctuary cities,’ it’s harder to deport those here illegally as the city will not provide local resources to support ICE.

So, if migrants are crossing the border unscreened and DHS finds latently that they need to be deported, does that make heading to a sanctuary even more appealing (because of course we don’t support ICE in facilitating deportations)? And then how do we care for this exponential growth in numbers? Because surely if there is a loophole that big which allows you to stay pending a court date that is years away…of course you’ll come to New York.

Are all 100,000+ that NYC is supporting eligible to even apply for asylum?

In an effort to better understand what is happening, and the longer-term financial cost to the city, we’ve started to take a look at the numbers provided by the Department of Homeland Security.

The first notable discrepancy in the data are how few are granted asylum in the US full-stop. Since 1990 (where their data set begins) there has never been more than 45,000 people granted asylum. Last year it was 36,000 and yet there were 2.8 million border crossing in 2022 and, according to the Migration Policy Institute, there are more than 1.3 million asylum applications pending as of May 2023 taking on average 4 years to complete.

So it’s natural to ask how these numbers square with Mayor Adams assertion that we are supporting more than 101,200 “asylum seekers” — how is that possible if in the entire United States only 36,000 were approved last year?

Is it possible we are financially supporting those who are here illegally?

That is the question that must be answered. We are all compassionate, mostly immigrants ourselves, but we cannot take care of a steady stream entering our country who do not have legal status.

And when you consider the many loopholes that exist in our local policy too, we find ourselves destined to house and care for these arrivals at taxpayer expense and to the detriment of children and vulnerable in our city. At least until the city goes bankrupt.

There is no virtue in avoiding the question, it only hurts everyone in the end. We will report back on what we hear from our elected officials.

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The Real (Migrant) Crisis is in the Details